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Evaluating the Best QB Prospects Since 2021: How does Fernando Mendoza stack up?
Mar
With the 2026 NFL Draft just weeks away, scouting departments across the league are working around the clock to finalize their evaluations of this year’s top talent. However, we’re taking a step back to provide some historical context on Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza. While he is the consensus QB1 of this class, how does he truly stack up against the elite prospects of recent years?
Quarterbacks have claimed the No. 1 overall pick in four of the last five drafts, with stars like Caleb Williams (2024), Bryce Young (2023), and Trevor Lawrence (2021) all topping my annual Big Boards. In previous cycles, I ranked C.J. Stroud as the No. 2 overall prospect in 2023, while Drake Maye landed at No. 6 in 2024—a ranking that held steady even in a historically loaded class featuring elite playmakers like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers. While the 2026 class may not be as top-heavy as previous years, Mendoza remains a premium talent, checking in at No. 4 overall on my latest Big Board.
Fernando Mendoza is the Raiders’ presumptive No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. But how many recent top QB prospects would be taken ahead of him if available today?
Looking back at my 2024 Big Board, I ranked Jayden Daniels two spots behind Drake Maye, with J.J. McCarthy at 23rd, Michael Penix Jr. at 25th, and Bo Nix at 40th overall. In fact, Nix and Jaxson Dart (No. 46 in 2025) were the only first-round quarterbacks since 2021 whom I didn’t grade as top-32 prospects. In hindsight, I clearly undervalued how their mobility and grit would translate to the NFL level.
Both have exceeded my expectations. However, the goal here is to contextualize Fernando Mendoza within my original pre-draft evaluations, which I cannot retroactively change. I’ll also admit that, like many others, I was enamored by the high ceilings of Anthony Richardson and Will Levis in 2023, ranking them 9th and 13th respectively. Meanwhile, in 2021, while Trevor Lawrence was my top overall prospect, Justin Fields followed at No. 9, with Zach Wilson (10th), Trey Lance (13th), and Mac Jones (15th) all carrying first-round grades.
Ty Simpson spent four years at Alabama but was the starter for just one. Has he shown enough to warrant a first-round selection?
Excelling as an NFL quarterback demands as much poise and leadership as it does raw arm talent. Rarely are signal-callers truly prepared for the professional stage after only a season or two as a college starter. This reality has often caused gifted passers with first-round traits to slide down my Big Boards. In fact, it’s not a guarantee that a quarterback will even crack my top 10; neither my 2022 nor my 2025 final rankings featured a single QB in that elite range.
I was genuinely stunned to see Shedeur Sanders tumble to the fifth round last year. He was my top-rated quarterback, ranked No. 12 overall in the 2025 class—just ahead of Cam Ward at No. 14—even when it became clear the Titans were locked in on Ward with the No. 1 pick. External rankings, even those from NFL front offices, don’t dictate my grades. This has always been my approach: back in 2022, I had Malik Willis at No. 19 overall, while Kenny Pickett—the draft’s only first-round QB—was 32nd on my board.
Malik Willis fell to the third round of the 2022 draft. But he was Rob Rang’s top QB prospect in that class.
I’m confident that my evaluation of Mendoza is fair and free from recency bias—both toward his performance and the NFL success of previous quarterbacks. Despite any narratives you may have heard, Mendoza’s ascent to the No. 1 overall spot was steady rather than sudden.
I identified him as a first-round talent before the season even kicked off. Throughout a magical year, he became the heartbeat of the Hoosiers, silencing doubters on a path that ended with both a National Championship and the Heisman Trophy. Mendoza is the undisputed QB1 of this cycle and deserves his place among the elite prospects in this draft.
He offers a compelling blend of pro-ready polish and high-end upside, with a skill set that fits perfectly into the offense Klint Kubiak is expected to run with the Las Vegas Raiders. Beyond his prototypical frame, quick-trigger release, and pinpoint accuracy on the move, Mendoza enters the league with elite pre-snap diagnostic skills and proven poise. He projects as a Day 1 starter with the physical tools and intangibles to be a franchise-altering player. So, where does he rank among the best QB prospects of the last five years? Let’s dive in.
My pre-draft ranking of the top QB prospects since 2021 …
22. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss (No. 25 overall pick in 2025 by New York Giants)
21. Bo Nix, Oregon (No. 12 overall pick in 2024 by Denver Broncos)
20. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh (No. 20 overall pick in 2022 by Pittsburgh Steelers)
19. Ty Simpson, Alabama (2026 draft prospect)
18. Will Levis, Kentucky (No. 33 overall pick in 2023 by Tennessee Titans)
17. Michael Penix Jr., Washington (No. 8 overall pick in 2024 by Atlanta Falcons)
16. Mac Jones, Alabama (No. 15 overall pick in 2021 by New England Patriots)
15. Malik Willis, Liberty (No. 86 overall pick in 2022 by Tennessee Titans)
14. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (No. 10 overall pick in 2024 by Minnesota Vikings)
13. Trey Lance, North Dakota State (No. 3 overall pick in 2021 by San Francisco 49ers)
12. Cam Ward, Miami (No. 1 overall pick in 2025 by Tennessee Titans)
11. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado (No. 144 overall pick in 2025 by Cleveland Browns)
Shedeur Sanders’ fifth-round selection was drastically later than projected heading into the 2025 draft. Will he prove the whole league wrong?
10. Anthony Richardson Sr., Florida (No. 4 overall pick in 2023 by Indianapolis Colts)
9. Zach Wilson, BYU (No. 2 overall pick in 2021 by New York Jets)
8. Justin Fields, Ohio State (No. 11 overall pick in 2021 by Chicago Bears)
7. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (2026 draft prospect)
6. Jayden Daniels, LSU (No. 2 overall pick in 2024 by Washington Commanders)
5. Drake Maye, North Carolina (No. 3 overall pick in 2024 by New England Patriots)
4. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State (No. 2 overall pick in 2023 by Houston Texans)
3. Bryce Young, Alabama (No. 1 overall pick in 2023 by Carolina Panthers)
2. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (No. 1 overall pick in 2021 by Jacksonville Jaguars)
1. Caleb Williams, USC (No. 1 overall pick in 2025 by Chicago Bears)
How I’d rank them as of today …
22. Trey Lance, Cardinals
21. Zach Wilson, free agent
20. Kenny Pickett, Panthers
19. Will Levis, Titans
18. Anthony Richardson Sr., Colts
17. Justin Fields, Chiefs
16. Ty Simpson
15. Shedeur Sanders, Browns
14. Mac Jones, 49ers
13. J.J. McCarthy, Vikings
12. Michael Penix Jr., Falcons
11. Jaxson Dart, Giants
Jaxson Dart exceeded expectations as a rookie last year, even as a first-round pick. It was a deciding factor in John Harbaugh taking the Giants’ head coaching job in January.
10. Malik Willis, Dolphins
9. Cam Ward, Titans
8. Fernando Mendoza
7. Bryce Young, Panthers
6. C.J. Stroud, Texans
5. Jayden Daniels, Commanders
4. Bo Nix, Broncos
3. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
2. Caleb Williams, Bears
1. Drake Maye, Patriots
